Tag Archive | "2012"

Mitt Romney’s Keystone State


Pennsylvania may be Rick Santorum’s home state, but its demographics, especially in the more populous suburbs, suit Mitt Romney. In the “collar counties” around Philadelphia — Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery — Republican voters tend to support mild-mannered conservatives who are focused on economic and fiscal issues.

Three Republican congressmen with flinty, independent personalities — Mike Fitzpatrick, Pat Meehan, and Jim Gerlach — represent districts in this critical slice of the Keystone State. While Santorum has the support of a few House members elsewhere in Pennsylvania, Romney’s identification with this southeastern trio, in terms of his politics and sensibility, will be a bigger factor.

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Mitt Romney, Underdog?


If he wins the nomination, Mitt Romney will switch from organizational heavyweight to underdog.

Romney’s current operation — significantly larger than that of any of his GOP rivals — pales in comparison to the Obama apparatus. According to an Associated Press analysis, the president’s campaign has over 500 employees — about five times as many as Romney has now — and offices in 45 states.

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Rick Santorum’s Long Goodbye


April may be a long, long month for Rick Santorum.

The former Pennsylvania senator is determined to stay in the GOP presidential race, but beyond his die-hard supporters, few Republicans want to see the battle continue.

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The Ron Johnson Factor


In late March, Mitt Romney met with a handful of Republican senators in Senator Jim DeMint’s Capitol Hill office. DeMint, a South Carolina conservative, made clear to the group that he would remain unaligned during the presidential primary. But he wanted to give his colleagues, especially the freshmen, a chance to converse with the GOP front-runner.

One of those first-term members, Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, came away impressed. A successful and mild-mannered former businessman, Johnson appreciated Romney’s focus on economic growth and attention to the ballooning federal debt, which has become the senator’s bailiwick. “We were able to ask some pretty pointed questions,” he tells National Review Online. “That gave me a great deal of confidence that [Romney] fully understands the problem.”

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The Culture Warrior


In the fall of Rick Santorum’s second year as a senator, he asked an impertinent question of his colleague Russ Feingold (D., Wis.). Most Democrats in 1996, including Feingold, were defending the legality of a procedure — dubbed “partial-birth abortion” by pro-lifers — in which an abortionist partially delivered a fetus, punctured its skull, vacuumed out its brain, and then removed the remains. What, asked Santorum, if the abortionist accidentally delivered the fetus whole? Could he then “kill the baby”? 

Feingold answered: “I am not the person to be answering that question. That is a question that should be answered by a doctor, and by the woman who receives the advice from the doctor. And neither I, nor is the senator from Pennsylvania, truly competent to answer those questions. That is why we should not be making those decisions here on the floor of the Senate.” 

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Senate 2012 Outlook


A Republican-controlled Senate in 2012 looks less likely than it did a few weeks ago, but the prospect for GOP gains is still quite solid.

Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs this cycle, seven are occupied by Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents who are not seeking reelection, three are occupied by Republicans who are not seeking reelection, 16 are occupied by Democrats seeking reelection, and seven are occupied by Republicans seeking reelection. This is the class of senators last elected in 2006, a midterm election that almost could not have gone worse for the GOP.

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Newt in Autumn


At dusk on Wednesday, as Newt Gingrich and his Secret Service detail arrived at Georgetown University, a pair of shaggy-haired undergraduates tossed a Frisbee on Healy lawn. The two young men paid little attention to the silver-haired former speaker. I’m not even sure they recognized him. A few steps from Gingrich’s caravan, four female students, in slate-gray Hoya T-shirts and blue shorts, jogged past the entourage. They didn’t gawk; they didn’t even glance.

To the 400 attendees inside Gaston Hall, a mix of College Republicans and faculty members, Gingrich was a star, an approaching legend. The excitement inside the third-floor auditorium was palpable. But to most students, the visit was a footnote. On a muggy night, the lacrosse matches across the campus were the bigger draw.

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Santorum’s Ultimate Strategy


Here’s a bit of old news: Rick Santorum is committed to staying in the GOP presidential race. Yet, from his perspective, his survival strategy is misunderstood, and in the coming days, he hopes to reframe his candidacy.

As Santorum told reporters at a Monday breakfast, his persistence is not tethered to success in specific primaries. Instead, he is betting his candidacy on an argument — that he, not Mitt Romney, is best equipped to battle Obamacare.

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Coal policy could swing the election


Obama

Forgive me for venturing out from strict horserace poll analysis, but given the the administration’s recent moves on coal power, I couldn’t help but wonder how that might affect the President in swing states, should prices rise in coal-burning states.

A check I made this morning suggests that the answer is yes, if coal is an issue in this election, it could swing close states.

Here’s a simple chart of the closeness of a state’s 2008 Presidential election result vs the state’s coal use as a percentage. Source for coal use: the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, but they also cite their sources too if you’d like to dig in. Election margin source: the final column of the Wikipedia chart.

Coal and the 2008 election

I asked OpenOffice to throw in the trend line. Additionally, the Pearson coefficient is -0.37. That means that the correlation is not small, and not strong, but medium, according to common Pearson interpretations.

Considering I’m not in any way predicting that coal use caused the 2008 gap, that’s an interesting finding. By chance, the closer a state was in 2008, the more coal it uses, on average. Of the states at 5% or less of a 2008 gap, only Florida doesn’t get a majority of its electricity from coal.

Again, I must stress the modesty of this find. I’m not predicting that the administration’s policies necessarily will cause shifts in coal energy prices soon enough or large enough to swing votes in coal-burning states. Nor am I predicting that the issue would necessarily be decisive of people’s votes.

I’m merely checking that if both of those things do happen, whether they would be happening in states where it would make a difference. The answer to that question is yes. Unluckily for the President as it may be.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Posted in News, Politics, RedStateComments Off

Coal policy could swing the election


Obama

Forgive me for venturing out from strict horserace poll analysis, but given the the administration’s recent moves on coal power, I couldn’t help but wonder how that might affect the President in swing states, should prices rise in coal-burning states.

A check I made this morning suggests that the answer is yes, if coal is an issue in this election, it could swing close states.

Here’s a simple chart of the closeness of a state’s 2008 Presidential election result vs the state’s coal use as a percentage. Source for coal use: the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, but they also cite their sources too if you’d like to dig in. Election margin source: the final column of the Wikipedia chart.

Coal and the 2008 election

I asked OpenOffice to throw in the trend line. Additionally, the Pearson coefficient is -0.37. That means that the correlation is not small, and not strong, but medium, according to common Pearson interpretations.

Considering I’m not in any way predicting that coal use caused the 2008 gap, that’s an interesting finding. By chance, the closer a state was in 2008, the more coal it uses, on average. Of the states at 5% or less of a 2008 gap, only Florida doesn’t get a majority of its electricity from coal.

Again, I must stress the modesty of this find. I’m not predicting that the administration’s policies necessarily will cause shifts in coal energy prices soon enough or large enough to swing votes in coal-burning states. Nor am I predicting that the issue would necessarily be decisive of people’s votes.

I’m merely checking that if both of those things do happen, whether they would be happening in states where it would make a difference. The answer to that question is yes. Unluckily for the President as it may be.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Posted in News, Politics, RedStateComments Off

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